QQQ vs SPY 10-Year Regression: Tech Concentration vs Diversification
QQQ sits at $651.42 with a 1-year return of +44.0%, while SPY sits at $708.45 with a 1-year return of +33.8%.The 3-year cumulative gap is 30.2 percentage points: QQQ at +108.0% versus SPY at +77.8%.The 5-year cumulative gap is 15.4 percentage points: QQQ at +98.1% versus SPY at +82.7%.SPY still pays more income, with a 1.04% dividend yield versus QQQ at 0.43%, or 2.4 times as much cash yield.On an implied 5-year CAGR basis, QQQ is roughly 14.6% and SPY roughly 12.8%, which means the spread exists, but it is not huge enough to ignore regime risk. Why the 20-year savings curve matters more than the share price Monthly investment 20-year compound growth simulation The first mistake in comparing QQQ and SPY is to stare at the price tags. QQQ at $651.42 and SPY at $708.45 look like two expensive symbols, but share price is not the signal. The return path is. The 20-year monthly 300,000-won simulation inserted below this section makes the same point in a cleaner way: at 4%, 7%, and 10%, the ending values do not rise in a straight line. They accelerate. That is the compounding effect that turns a small annual edge into a large decade gap. ...